INTU

Intuit

TurboTax and QuickBooks — annual rituals with data lock-in, plus a credit franchise on top.

WideForeverFullTech fluent

Longhold

Earnings

Moat

Hold

Ten-year thesis

Tax software is a habit enforced by the calendar. QuickBooks is the SME system of record. Combined with Mailchimp and Credit Karma, Intuit sits on cash-flow and identity data for millions of small businesses and households. A ten-year hold is a bet that the IRS never successfully commoditizes filing, and that SMEs do not migrate en masse to a free bank-bundled ledger. This is one of the cleanest consumer/SME software compounders in the book.

The moat

Switching costs (historical books, tax history), brand at tax time, and scale in lobby/compliance around the tax franchise. Network effects limited; data advantages real.

Switching costs91

Pain, risk, or retraining required to leave.

Network effects48

The product gets better as more people use it.

Intangibles & IP82

Patents, data, licenses, process knowledge, regulation.

Scale advantage80

Fixed costs spread over a volume rivals cannot match.

Cost advantage70

Structural ability to be the low-cost producer.

Brand86

Pricing power from trust, habit, or identity.

Tech overlay

If you want 'Buffett would understand this tech,' start here. Recurring, mission-critical, high switching costs, regulated adjacency. AI that auto-fills a return deepens the moat if it lives on Intuit’s data.

What can break it

IRS Direct File expanding beyond a niche
SME platforms from banks and Square/Shopify
Valuation that assumes mid-teens compounding forever

Earnings path

USD billions, illustrative 2016–2025 series

Owner metrics

P/E

58.0×

P/FCF

40.0×

ROIC

16%

ROE

18%

FCF conversion

105%

Debt / equity

0.60

Gross margin

80%

Op. margin

24%

10y rev CAGR

12%

10y EPS CAGR

14%

Owner earnings

$5.1B

Mkt cap

$175B

Owner earnings yield 2.9%. Yield is judged against quality, not against a single hurdle — a fortress can be fairly priced at a lower yield than a fragile name.

SaaSSMETax