NKE

Nike

One of the great global brands, currently earning the right to be called wide again.

EmergingFive yearsFullClassic

Longhold

Earnings

Moat

Hold

Ten-year thesis

Nike’s moat is brand plus athlete endorsement plus distribution. That still exists. Wholesale/DTC confusion, fashion-cycle misses, and China have shown that brand is not a standing army — it has to be merchandised. A ten-year hold is plausible if the brand is restaged; it is not automatic. Score it as narrow-to-emerging until operating margins and share stabilize. Famous logos can be average businesses.

The moat

Brand and scale in endorsement. Switching costs near zero; demand is taste. Distribution muscle remains. Moat width is currently an empirical question, not a slogan.

Switching costs28

Pain, risk, or retraining required to leave.

Network effects35

The product gets better as more people use it.

Intangibles & IP70

Patents, data, licenses, process knowledge, regulation.

Scale advantage80

Fixed costs spread over a volume rivals cannot match.

Cost advantage64

Structural ability to be the low-cost producer.

Brand88

Pricing power from trust, habit, or identity.

Tech overlay

Not a tech story. Included because Buffett-style brand analysis still fails when fashion and China mix. Do not import 'forever' from 2015 10-Ks.

What can break it

Fashion miss and inventory
China brand politics
On-premium competitors (On, Hoka, Adidas)

Earnings path

USD billions, illustrative 2016–2025 series

Owner metrics

P/E

28.0×

P/FCF

26.0×

ROIC

18%

ROE

32%

FCF conversion

75%

Debt / equity

0.80

Gross margin

44%

Op. margin

11%

10y rev CAGR

10y EPS CAGR

Owner earnings

$4.8B

Mkt cap

$110B

Owner earnings yield 4.4%. Yield is judged against quality, not against a single hurdle — a fortress can be fairly priced at a lower yield than a fragile name.

BrandApparelTurnaround